I was surprised on election night to discover the predictions of many conservative commentators. Karl Rove, Charles Krauthammer, Dick Morris, Newt Gingrich and others were all predicting a Romney win, some of landslide proportions.
These pundits seemed genuinely shocked and surprised that their predictions did not come true. Conservatives seem to be living in a political bubble where they only believe information they want to believe, where they decry objective analysis of information contrary to their prior belief systems.
The lack of objectivity of the conservative media is undermining the effectiveness of the conservative message. Fox News and its ilk are feeding the conservative right drastically incorrect information about the state of the world. The denial that others don't think exactly like they do, and therefore information which indicates others do view the world differently, is undermining the effectiveness of the Republican party.
While I understand ginning up the polls to bolster conservative turnout, continuing to sell a fundamentally untrue message eventually backfires. How can Fox News viewers take the predictions of these pundits seriously anymore?
The Republicans would be better off accepting fundamental realities in objective polling data. It is strategically unwise to merely assume the country is something which it is not.
As we watch the battle between the conservative Republicans and moderate Republicans unfold for control of the party, the more fundamental question is whether or not the party will just be honest with itself and hire rigorous pollsters like a Nate Silver to tell them the fundamental truths about the American electorate--even ones they don't want to hear.
RG
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